Friday, February 20, 2009

President Obama, the Housing Plan and the Stupidity Tax - BITTER

"The plan I’m announcing focuses on rescuing families who have played by the rules and acted responsibly," the President said, "by refinancing loans for millions of families in traditional mortgages who are underwater or close to it; by modifying loans for families stuck in sub-prime mortgages they can’t afford as a result of skyrocketing interest rates or personal misfortune; and by taking broader steps to keep mortgage rates low so that families can secure loans with affordable monthly payments." - President Barack Obama

I could not be more infuriated by the above statement. President Obama says that he is trying to help those who played by the rules and acted responsibly. This plan is estimated to help 9 million homeowners with mortgages, out of roughly 52 million, I think. This is about 20% or 1 in 5. Are you trying to tell me that 1 in 5 current mortgage holders was in some way duped, swindled, or pushed into something that they didn't understand? Are you trying to tell me that all of these homeowners who are or are near underwater on their mortgages (owe more than the house is worth) had no idea that they were drastically overpaying for their homes? I refuse to accept any of this nonsense.

I'm not going to deny that some level of predatory lending went on, but the rules of real estate didn't get written recently, like so many other Wall Street financial instruments. Investors may have something to cry about given the complex nature of the things they bought and the potentially unscrupulous ratings agencies who left things rated too high for far too long. Homeowners had better think again.

The rules of buying a house have existed for a very long time. You should be able to buy a house that costs roughly 3 to 4 times your gross income. If you make $50,000 per year, you should be buying a house for about $200,000. That's not a $200,000 mortgage. That's the house price. Over the last few years, people and banks seemed to forget about that pesky 20% downpayment. The vast majority of people did not play by these rules. It was not uncommon over the last few years to see people buying houses as much as 10 times their gross income with ZERO downpayment. Banks didn't care since they were dumping the mortgage on Wall Street anyway. But no sane human being can honestly stand in front of me and tell me they truly thought they could afford these houses. And I don't care what kind of sub-prime, interest only, or even less than interest (kudos Washington Mutual on that one) mortgage product you were offered. The basic rule of a loan is, you eventually have to pay it back. All of it.

And then there are the other group of homeowners who are lining up for their personal bailouts, the fake home equity line of credit folks. These are people who had houses before the bubble but, upon learning that their houses were exhorbitantly valued now, decided that they would cash out massive amounts of money in home equity loans, sometimes in the hundreds of thousands of dollars. And what did these newly "fake wealthy" people do with this money? They went to Best Buy, BMW, and Bermuda. Seriously, has anyone even looked at how fast big screen TV's have made their way into living rooms in the last 5 years?

I was in the market for a new home in 2003, when I bought what I could afford at the time. I bought a 2 bedroom, 1 bathroom condo. I splurged on a new television because I had the cash and happened to watch a lot of TV. I bought a 46" widescreen rear projection model. I was the first person I knew with a TV that big. Now almost everyone I know has that size or bigger, and oh yeah, theirs are all LCD or Plasma. People spent so much money that for the first time in our history, we actually had a negative savings rate. This means people were spending, on average for the entire United States, more money than they were making.

I recall hearing a radio news program a few months back about some financial counseling going on outside Washington D.C. and the intent was to make you feel bad for the people whose stories they told. Then they paraded out the story of a young guy who saved for years, bought his house, but now couldn't afford his payments. But then the young guy starts talking about how after he saved his money and bought his house, he decided to upgrade everything inside the house to the latest and greatest appliances, etc. How can I feel sorry for that? That's someone making some very stupid choices.

That's what President Obama is doing to us now. He is creating what I will now call "The Stupidity Tax". People that have ACTUALLY PLAYED BY THE RULES AND ACTED RESPONSIBLY are being punished. People that did not spend outside their means and have been sitting on the sidelines waiting for house prices to come back down are basically being screwed by this administration and our President. Not only are we not going to be able to buy a house, because of the anything and everything the Administration (combined with the Fed) is doing to artificially prop up house prices, we now are having our tax dollars, via the Stupidity Tax, used to keep many undeserving and downright stupid people in the houses they can't afford!

On top of all that, the Bush Administration tried out some of these same tactics last year. What happened to all the homeowners that were helped out, whose mortgages were modified? Over 50% of them went back into default within the year. Absolutely ridiculous.

And what about the speculators? That's right. What about all the people who are holding mortgages on homes that they don't actually live in. A significant portion of the home forclosures involve vacant investment properties that were bought for the sole purpose of "flipping". Should we feel sorry for people who saw 1 too many shows on TLC about making easy money this way? I don't think so.

I really wish that Obama would stick to what he said in his campaign by forcing people to take responsibility for their own actions. It insults the intelligence of the vast majority of Americans who used good judgement over the last few years to claim that he is only helping those that acted responsibly. If he were doing that, he would accellerate the normalization of housing prices so those people who should really be able to afford one could go out and buy one.

Unfortunately, many of these people simply need to get out of these homes. They can move into rentals and jumpstart the economy by paying a landlord some money instead of a bank.

A special thanks to Patrick Killelea, whose website I have been reading for several years now. He has been one of the few advocates of truth in the housing bubble for years before it was popular. 

8 comments:

  1. Wow - very passionate post and certainly many valid points.

    I'm worried about the people who would want to buy a house now because of the recent plunge in house prices but are holding off because of the uncertainty created confusing statements and plans from our politicians.

    Thanks for stopping by the SAMBA blog and commenting on our Slam Dunk Contest post.

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  2. Good article! I have a similar perspective but with a very surprising outcome!! In 1999, at the beginning of the California bubble, I found I couldn't even afford my own house that I sold the previous year because of an out of state job transfer. The firm went BK and I moved back to california to start over.

    I knew instinctively we were in one of those Realtor "Lie-a-thons", where we would were told that this was the "last chance" to buy and "..the last they heard they aren't making land anymore..." and more lies to pump up sales and house prices.

    So, we conducted a wonderful experiment! We challenged the lies with our own experience. We rented a house for the lowest amount that we could find. We decided to play a "fantasy house" game. We pretended that the house we rented, was a house we bought---with no money down, low mortgage interest and a huge monthly PITI payment. We saved the difference between the rent we paid and the PITI we would have paid as if we were mortgage owners instead of renters. It was a terrible hurt to our lifestyles, but we did it anyway. Beans and rice and more beans and rice. A typical Realtor lie is that paying a high mortgage payment is like a forced savings plan because it is a "proven fact" that "..house prices only go up..". We saved the difference between monthly rent payments and the Projected PITI we would have been forcd to pay as mortgage debtors. Twice in that time period our house was purchased by wannabe millionaire flippers who immediately jacked up our rent. Even with this greediness by the flippers we continued to save.

    Here we are ten years later, still renting a house that has still not dropped to its pre-bubble value. BUT with a twist! We have saved over $300,000 by paying rent and not paying PITI.

    Do we lament the fact we are renting? Hell NO! Do we lament the fact we have lots of money saved? NO!

    Do we want to buy a house today? Hell NO!

    But when those greedy "homeowners" are bleeding in the street crying, we might make a cash offer at 1990 prices! LOL Let the good times roll! I love the smell of napalm in the morning---I mean--I love to hear the cries of the stupid, and the moaning of the Realtor "Get rich quick crowd!





    After a few months, we had to frequently increase the amount

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  3. The Reason Obam and the rest of the Royal family government wants to keep house prices up is they get higher property taxes and banks get more interest. (rent on money). Higher property taxes pay for massive pensions. Government like high prices so citizens have to pay more in taxes.

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  4. We still drive our old cars and love having ZERO debt. Post script- The greedy flippers who jacked our house rent because they couldn't afford the high payments? Well, the first flipper--like most Realtor flippers, conveniently forgot to report the rental income on their "investment flipper houses". Someone---could it have been moi? --- turned them in to the IRS criminal section for tax fraud. Last I read, they had over $90,000 in IRS tax liens + penalties, they lost all their houses they lied to buy, and they lost their business and are now ON THE STREET where they are begging for handouts. OOps too bad. I saw their last custom house at auction. I had to try out their commode for old times sake. Now I know what it feels like for a Realtor to sit on a custom thrown! OOps made a mess.

    Th second jerk lost the house and everything, and they too are having tax problems and mortgage problems. I think there is a lesson in there for bigshot Realtors?

    When you are bragging about your investments, talk to the mirror or the hand, because the people making your mortgage payments (renters) think its rude to brag about stupidity. OINK OINK!

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  5. I don't think any serious economist believes that the housing bailouts will actually work to prop up prices. The sheer size of the bubble (some 10-15 trillion in inflated values) is simply too large for the government to prop up.

    Furthermore, housing prices are in free fall, which has a momentum of its own. While certain clueless buyers will inevitably jump in now thinking they are getting "bargains", they will never buy in sufficient numbers to somehow stop the free fall. The fact of the matter is that there were, by conservative estimates, 1-2 million surplus housing units built during the bubble years. Supply far exceeds demand.

    As powerful as was the psychology of scarcity that powered the bubble, the current psychology of fear is far more potent. Evidence of millions upon millions losing their shirts from housing investments will color the outlook of potential buyers for a generation. Instead of buying the NAR spin of housing as a solid investment, people are now seeing it as a huge risk that can lead to financial ruin. As a result, even when prices finally bottom (probably at around 1997 levels if not less), they will likely stay flat for quite a few years as many people simply opt to rent rather than risk financial ruin by buying in too early.

    We are barely at the half way point of the bubble collapse, the point in any bubble at which a number of people always get suckered in by a false bottom. But a quick look at the bell curve of housing pricing since 1997 will show you exactly where we are on that downward slope and just how far we have to go until we reach bottom.

    It is sickening that Obama is attempting to prop up prices at the expense of renters and the fiscally responsible. The good news is that he simply doesn't have the power to put this genie back in the bottle.

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  6. Anyone remember the videos or books advertised on TV about getting rich in real estate, they've been around for years.

    We are our own worst enemy.

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